Model Dashboard

Phase 40 • Training

Model Story

A story-driven view of each run: trust (performance), drivers (what mattered), adaptation (how it shifts in stress), and blind spots (when it fails).

Select a target and a run to load the model story.

Target

Run

Download artifacts or share this view.

JSON

Metrics CSV Feature Usage CSV

Reliability (Calibration)

Verification: Does "60% probability" actually mean 60% win rate? Points should hug the diagonal line.

Select a run to compute backtest performance…

Prediction Confidence

Select a run to compute prediction uncertainty…

Track how allocation rotates across base models over time (stacked to 100%), with the target-specific benchmark overlaid to reveal who is driving decisions in each regime. Represents the StackedEnsemble model.

Compare the stacked ensemble (blue) against the actual target (black) and the underlying base models (dotted).

Model Stability (Rolling Log Loss)

Consistency check: Spikes indicate regime failures where the model stopped understanding the market.

Compare candidate models against the Conservative (Voting) ensemble. Blue indicates the Champion. Green indicates the Voting System.

The final feature set used by this run, grouped by type (Volatility / Momentum / Macro / Other).

Numbers represent feature importance scores (relative contribution to prediction).

Ranked importance across the base model layer (normalized). Shows what drove predictions most.

Phase 50 • Signal

Signal Dashboard

See what the model predicts next and why. This view reads the latest Phase 50 artifacts and explains the signal strength using the same thresholds the system uses internally.

Pick a target and (optionally) a snapshot.

Target

Run snapshot

Signal Strength

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Select a target

Forecast

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Last Updated

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Model

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Forecast JSON Explanation JSON

A live read of the current signal for the selected target, expressed as probability or forecast value.

Strong Buy —

Buy / Up —

Strong Sell —

Sell / Down —

Select a target to reveal how this signal was generated.

Aggressive (Champion)

Pred. Return

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Raw market call (unscaled).

Rec. Position

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Risk-scaled allocation.

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Forecast Uncertainty

90% Confidence Range

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Low: —

High: —

Aggressive: —

Conservative: —

Forecast: —

The Forecast Uncertainty range spans from Low to High (90% confidence). The inner colored band highlights the spread between the Aggressive and Conservative strategies.

A risk-aware view of today’s forecast. The band summarizes uncertainty (model disagreement or historical error).

Confidence: Select a target to estimate uncertainty…

Range of predictions from individual base models (Level 0).

Loading uncertainty data...

Each dot is a base model prediction; the whisker shows the full min/max range for the ensemble.

Feature contributions for this specific prediction. Positive bars push the forecast up; negative bars push it down.

Insight: If the top bars are dominated by volatility or risk-off features, the model is reacting to regime stress. If momentum and breadth dominate, the model is leaning on trend continuation.

Model Dashboard

Portfolio Models Overview

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Model Story

Reliability (Calibration)

Reality Check

Prediction Confidence

Evolution of Trust

Signal Forensics

Model Stability (Rolling Log Loss)

Voting Ensemble

Blind Spots

Comparison

The Brain

Drivers

Signal Dashboard

The Speedometer

Ensemble Composition

How Much to Trust This Signal

Why the Model Thinks This